Revise Investment Appraisal for Cambridge 9706 (4.4.1)

The foundation of most investment appraisal techniques is the project's net cash flow. This is the difference between the cash coming into the business (inflows) and the cash going out (outflows) as a direct result of the project in a given period. It's vital to distinguish this from accounting profit. Cash flow is king in investment appraisal because it represents the actual money available to the business.

There are four main techniques you need to master for your exams. We will explore each one in detail, including how to calculate it and its main advantages and disadvantages. Understanding how to apply these is crucial for making sound investment decisions.

The payback period is the simplest appraisal method. It measures the time it takes for a project's net cash inflows to recover the initial investment cost. It's a measure of risk and liquidity - the faster you get your money back, the less risky the project is considered. For projects with uneven annual cash inflows, you calculate the cumulative cash flow year by year until the initial investment is recovered. If the payback occurs part-way through a year, you calculate the fraction of the year needed.

For projects with even annual cash inflows: $\text{Payback Period} = \frac{\text{Initial Investment}}{\text{Annual Net Cash Inflow}}$

The Accounting Rate of Return (ARR) measures the average annual profit generated by a project as a percentage of the investment. Unlike other methods, it uses accounting profit, not cash flow. The project is accepted if its ARR is higher than the company's target rate of return.

First, calculate the average annual profit: $\text{Average Annual Profit} = \frac{\text{Total Net Profit over Project's Life}}{\text{Number of Years}}$ (Note: Total Net Profit = Total Cash Inflows - Total Depreciation)

Next, calculate the average investment: $\text{Average Investment} = \frac{\text{Initial Cost} + \text{Residual (Scrap) Value}}{2}$

Finally, calculate the ARR: $\text{ARR} = \frac{\text{Average Annual Profit}}{\text{Average Investment}} \times 100\%$

Net Present Value (NPV) is a discounted cash flow (DCF) technique. It recognises the time value of money - the principle that money received today is worth more than the same amount received in the future, because today's money can be invested to earn a return. NPV calculates the present value of all future net cash flows from a project and subtracts the initial investment. To find the present value, we 'discount' future cash flows using the company's cost of capital (the required rate of return).

The NPV is calculated as: $\text{NPV} = (\sum \text{of Present Values of all future cash inflows}) - \text{Initial Investment}$

In exams, you will be given a table of discount factors to simplify the calculation. You multiply each year's cash flow by its corresponding discount factor to find its present value.

The Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is another DCF technique. It is the discount rate at which the Net Present Value (NPV) of a project equals zero. In simpler terms, it's the exact percentage rate of return the project is expected to generate. To find the IRR, you typically use a trial-and-error process to find one positive and one negative NPV, then estimate the IRR using an interpolation formula.

The interpolation formula is: $\text{IRR} = a + \left[ \frac{\text{NPV}_a}{\text{NPV}_a - \text{NPV}_b} \right] \times (b - a)$ Where: $a$ = The lower discount rate, $b$ = The higher discount rate, $\text{NPV}_a$ = The positive NPV from rate $a$, $\text{NPV}_b$ = The negative NPV from rate $b$.

In your exam answers, you will often be asked to advise a business on whether to undertake a project. A good answer doesn't just present the calculations. You must interpret the results of each method you have used. For example, a project might have a quick payback but a low ARR. Another might have a high NPV but a longer payback period. You need to weigh these conflicting results.

Financial figures don't tell the whole story. A project that looks great on paper might be a poor choice for other reasons. Conversely, a project with marginal financial returns might be essential for strategic reasons. Always consider these qualitative, non-financial factors in your final recommendation.