In simple terms
A friendly intro before the formal notes — no formulas yet.
The World's Jenga Tower
Global risks are interconnected problems where a crisis in one area can topple others, just like pulling the wrong block in a Jenga game. Understanding these connections, especially between water, food, and energy, is key to preventing a total collapse and building a more stable world.
Imagine building a Jenga tower. Each block represents a vital system: one for water supply, another for food production, another for the power grid. If you carelessly pull out the 'water' block (e.g., due to a severe drought), the 'food' and 'energy' blocks above it become unstable and the whole tower might crash. Global risk management is about understanding which blocks support others and strengthening the tower so it can withstand shocks.
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Identify the specific global risk and its core characteristics, such as its probability and potential impact scale.
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Analyse the interconnections, focusing on how the risk impacts the water-food-energy (WFE) nexus and creates cascading effects.
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Assess the vulnerability of different populations and systems, and identify existing resilience capacities.
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Propose and evaluate management strategies at multiple scales, considering their effectiveness, equity, and sustainability.
Explore the concept
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Full topic notes
Formal explanation with the rigour you need for the exam.
Classifying Global Risks
The World Economic Forum's (WEF) annual Global Risks Report is a crucial resource that categorises major threats facing the world. These are typically grouped into five categories: economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal, and technological. Environmental risks, such as climate action failure and extreme weather, consistently rank as the most severe long-term threats. Understanding these categories helps us analyse the complex, multi-faceted nature of global challenges.
Economic Risks: Asset bubbles, debt crises, illicit trade.
Environmental Risks: Climate change, biodiversity loss, natural disasters.
Geopolitical Risks: Interstate conflict, state collapse, weapons of mass destruction.
Societal Risks: Infectious diseases, social instability, water crises.
Technological Risks: Cyberattacks, breakdown of critical infrastructure, adverse outcomes of AI.
The Water-Food-Energy (WFE) Nexus
The WFE nexus is a core concept for understanding resource insecurity and systemic risk. It describes the deep interdependencies between these three critical sectors. For instance, agriculture (food) is the largest consumer of freshwater globally, while the energy sector requires water for cooling and hydropower. In turn, energy is needed to pump, treat, and transport water, and to power agricultural machinery and food processing. A stressor on one part of the nexus, like a drought, will inevitably create pressures on the other two.
Strategies for Building Resilience
Resilience is not about preventing shocks from ever happening; it is about building the capacity to withstand them and recover effectively. Strategies can be categorised as either mitigation (reducing the risk's probability or impact) or adaptation (adjusting to the risk's effects). These strategies are implemented by a range of actors, from international bodies like the UN to local community groups, and can involve both 'hard' engineering solutions and 'soft' policy or social changes.
Worked examples
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A semi-arid region with a population of 2 million people relies on a reservoir for both hydropower and irrigation. A severe drought reduces the reservoir's water inflow by 50%. The region's single hydropower plant, which normally generates 800 GWh/year, sees its output fall by 60%. Local farms require 100 GWh/year for electric irrigation pumps. Explain two nexus-related consequences of this drought. [4 marks]
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Energy Insecurity leading to Food Insecurity [2 marks]: The 60% drop in hydropower output means a loss of GWh/year. The new output is 320 GWh/year. This creates an energy deficit, likely leading to power cuts or increased electricity prices. Farmers who need 100 GWh for irrigation will face higher costs or unreliable power, reducing their ability to water crops, which in turn threatens the local food supply and farm incomes.
Explain two strategies that have been used to build resilience to coastal flooding in a named low-income country. [6 marks]
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Country: Bangladesh
How it all connects
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Glossary
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Quick check
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Revision flashcards
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Global Risk
An uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, can cause significant negative impact for several countries or industries within the next 10 years. (Source: World Economic Forum)
Key takeaways
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Economic Risks: Asset bubbles, debt crises, illicit trade.
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Environmental Risks: Climate change, biodiversity loss, natural disasters.
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Geopolitical Risks: Interstate conflict, state collapse, weapons of mass destruction.
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Societal Risks: Infectious diseases, social instability, water crises.
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Technological Risks: Cyberattacks, breakdown of critical infrastructure, adverse outcomes of AI.
Practice — then mark it
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Test your knowledge on global risks and resilience
Test your knowledge on global risks and resilience
Extra simulations & links
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Frequently asked
Checkpoint
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