In simple terms
A friendly intro before the formal notes — no formulas yet.
The Global Domino Effect
Global risks are major threats that can cause a cascade of problems across the world, much like a line of dominoes falling. Resilience is our ability to build stronger dominoes or place stoppers in the line to prevent a total collapse.
Think about your personal health. Catching a common cold is a small risk. But if you're already stressed and not sleeping well, that cold could weaken your immune system, leading to a more serious chest infection. This chain reaction is like interconnected global risks. Your resilience is your overall 'wellness' – your good diet, regular exercise, and adequate rest – that helps you fight off the cold easily and prevents it from becoming something worse.
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Identify a specific global risk and its category, for example, 'extreme weather events' (environmental).
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Analyse its connections to other risks, such as how extreme weather can cause 'food crises' (societal) and 'involuntary migration' (geopolitical).
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Assess the vulnerability of different places or populations to this chain of risks, considering factors like poverty, governance, and location.
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Evaluate resilience strategies, distinguishing between mitigation (e.g., reducing carbon emissions) and adaptation (e.g., building sea walls) to manage the risk.
Explore the concept
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Full topic notes
Formal explanation with the rigour you need for the exam.
Categorising Global Risks
A global risk is a potential event that could cause significant harm on a global scale. The World Economic Forum (WEF) provides a useful framework, classifying risks into five main categories: environmental (e.g., climate action failure), economic (e.g., debt crises), geopolitical (e.g., interstate conflict), societal (e.g., infectious diseases), and technological (e.g., adverse outcomes of AI). Understanding these categories helps us to analyse the complex nature of global challenges and their origins.
Environmental Risks: Extreme weather, biodiversity loss, natural resource crises.
Economic Risks: Asset bubbles, debt crises, failure of financial mechanisms.
Geopolitical Risks: State collapse, geopolitical contestation of resources, interstate conflict.
Societal Risks: Infectious diseases, livelihood crises, social cohesion erosion.
Technological Risks: Cybersecurity failure, adverse outcomes of new tech, digital inequality.
The Interconnectedness of Risks
The most critical aspect of global risk analysis is understanding that these risks are not isolated. They form a complex web of interconnected threats, where one event can trigger a cascade of others across different categories. For example, a prolonged drought (an environmental risk) can lead to crop failure, causing a food crisis (a societal risk), which might then lead to civil unrest and political instability (a geopolitical risk), and finally disrupt supply chains, causing an economic shock (an economic risk).
Building Resilience: Mitigation and Adaptation
Resilience is the capacity of a system to cope with a hazardous event, responding or reorganising in ways that maintain its essential function, identity, and structure. It is more than just 'bouncing back'; it can also involve 'bouncing forward' to a more sustainable state. The two primary pathways to building resilience are mitigation and adaptation.
Mitigation: Actions taken to reduce the severity or frequency of a risk. This involves tackling the root causes. For climate change, mitigation is reducing greenhouse gas emissions through renewable energy or carbon capture.
Adaptation: Actions taken to adjust to the actual or expected impacts of a risk. This involves managing the unavoidable consequences. For climate change, adaptation includes building sea walls for sea-level rise or developing drought-resistant crops.
In exam questions, avoid simply listing risks or strategies. The key to high marks is to explain the connections and interrelationships. Use phrases like 'this, in turn, leads to...', 'a consequence of this is...', or 'this exacerbates the existing problem of...'. Always support your points with specific, named examples of places, events, or policies.
Worked examples
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Using a named example, explain the interconnectedness between two distinct categories of global risk. [4 marks]
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A clear example is the link between environmental and societal risks in the Sahel region of Africa.
For a named low-lying coastal community, evaluate the effectiveness of one mitigation and one adaptation strategy for building resilience to sea-level rise. [6 marks]
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Case Study: The Netherlands
How it all connects
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Glossary
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Quick check
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Revision flashcards
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What is a 'global risk'?
An uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, can cause significant negative impact for several countries or industries within the next 10 years. (Source: World Economic Forum)
Key takeaways
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Environmental Risks: Extreme weather, biodiversity loss, natural resource crises.
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Economic Risks: Asset bubbles, debt crises, failure of financial mechanisms.
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Geopolitical Risks: State collapse, geopolitical contestation of resources, interstate conflict.
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Societal Risks: Infectious diseases, livelihood crises, social cohesion erosion.
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Technological Risks: Cybersecurity failure, adverse outcomes of new tech, digital inequality.
Practice — then mark it
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Checkpoint
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