In simple terms
A friendly intro before the formal notes — no formulas yet.
From Dots to Curves: Real-World Modelling
This topic is about finding the best mathematical curve — a parabola, an S-shape or a power curve — to describe a set of real-world data points, then reading useful facts off that curve: where it peaks, where it crosses the axes, and what it predicts. The GDC does the fitting; your job is to choose the right shape and interpret the result.
Imagine you are a tailor and the data points are a customer's measurements. You choose the right pattern (a quadratic, cubic or power function) and adjust it to make a garment (the model) that fits. A good fit lets you predict a size for another item — but predicting far beyond the measurements you took risks an outfit that does not fit at all. That is the difference between interpolation and extrapolation.
- 1
Plot and choose. Enter the data into the GDC and make a scatter plot. A single hump or valley (a 'U') suggests a quadratic; an 'S' shape suggests a cubic; a steady curve rising from near the origin suggests a power function.
- 2
Fit the model. Run the matching regression (QuadReg, CubicReg or PwrReg). Write the full equation, keeping the parameters to at least 3 significant figures and storing the exact equation in the GDC.
- 3
Read the features. Use the GDC's graph tools to find the vertex (maximum or minimum), the x-intercepts (roots) and the y-intercept, and to evaluate predictions.
- 4
Interpret in context. Say what each parameter and each feature means for the real situation, attach units, and flag whether a prediction is interpolation (reliable) or extrapolation (question it).
Explore the concept
Use the live diagram, PhET or GeoGebra sim, and synced steps — play it, drag controls, or tap a step.
Plot and choose. Enter the data into the GDC and make a scatter plot. A single hump or valley (a 'U') suggests a quadratic; an 'S' shape suggests a cubic; a steady curve rising from near the origin suggests a power function.
1 more simulation for this topic — run them in the Simulations section below
Simulations
Every simulation here runs the real model — try the steps on a card, then check what you see against the notes.
1 simulation
- PhETCoreIB AI 2.3
Curve Fitting
Drag data points onto the graph and fit a linear, quadratic or cubic curve; the fit statistics update as the points move.
Try this
- Place six points in a rough arch and choose a linear fit.
- Switch to quadratic, then cubic, and compare r².
- Move one point far off and see which fit reacts most.
Look for The model should follow the shape of the data; a slightly higher r² from a cubic does not justify it if the context has one turning point.
Simulation by PhET Interactive Simulations, University of Colorado Boulder · Licensed to MarkScheme (public licence CC BY-NC 4.0 since 2026-03-30)
Key formulas
Tap any symbol to reveal exactly what it means and its units.
Tap a symbol — great for exam definitions
Tap a symbol — great for exam definitions
Tap a symbol — great for exam definitions
Full topic notes
Formal explanation with the rigour you need for the exam.
The shapes and their key features
Before fitting anything, you need to recognise each shape and name its features, because exam questions ask for those features by name — the vertex, the axis of symmetry, the roots, the intercepts. Start a scatter plot on the GDC and read the shape off the screen.
For the quadratic : Axis of symmetry: . Vertex: the point on that line, x-coordinate , y-coordinate found by substituting it back in. y-intercept: . Roots: the solutions of , read from the GDC's 'zero' feature.
Quadratic (): a parabola with exactly one turning point, the vertex. It opens upward when (vertex is a minimum) and downward when (vertex is a maximum). It is symmetric about the axis of symmetry , meets the y-axis at , and has up to two roots where it crosses the x-axis.
Cubic (): typically an 'S' shape with up to two turning points (a local maximum and a local minimum) and up to three roots. It meets the y-axis at . Good for growth that speeds up, levels off, then changes again.
Power (): a single-term curve whose shape is set by . For it rises from the origin with no turning point; for it decays like a reciprocal curve and is undefined at . It is monotonic — it cannot rise then fall — which is the key clue for when NOT to use it.
The sign of the leading coefficient tells the story before you calculate anything. If a quadratic model has a maximum (a thrown ball, peak revenue); if it has a minimum (least cost). Stating this early stops you hunting for a maximum on an upward parabola that does not have one.
Fitting a model with your GDC
Once you have chosen a shape, the GDC finds the specific parameters by regression. The process is the same on every calculator: enter, choose, record, store.
Step 1 — Enter. In the statistics menu, put the independent variable (e.g. time) in one list and the dependent variable (e.g. height) in a second list.
Step 2 — Choose. In the regression sub-menu pick the model: QuadReg for quadratic, CubicReg for cubic, PwrReg for power.
Step 3 — Record. Run it, checking the correct lists are used. Write the full equation, quoting each parameter to at least 3 significant figures. If shown, note the value as a measure of fit.
Step 4 — Store. Save the equation into a function variable (e.g. Y1). Now you can graph it and use max/min, zero and value tools without retyping long decimals — and without introducing rounding error.
Worked example 1 — a quadratic model
When a question says 'find' or 'determine' a model, that is your cue to use GDC regression. Always write the full equation, not just the values of , and — the examiner marks the model, and a bare list of numbers can lose a mark.
Interpretation and prediction
A model earns its keep only when you interpret it and predict sensibly. Two ideas govern how far you can trust a prediction.
Interpolation: predicting a value INSIDE the range of the original data (e.g. the rocket's height at s, since lies between and ). Generally reliable.
Extrapolation: predicting a value OUTSIDE that range (e.g. the height at s). Less reliable — the model may not hold beyond the data, so its validity should be questioned.
Interpreting parameters is worth easy marks. For a power model , say ' is the value (in £1000s) near the start of the record' and ' controls how fast the value grows'. For a quadratic, name the vertex as the maximum/minimum and as the initial value — always with units and always in the words of the context.
Common mistakes examiners penalise
Confusing the vertex with a coefficient — the maximum/minimum of is at (or read from the GDC), NOT at or at the largest coefficient. The vertex is a point ; quote both coordinates with units.
Keeping a non-physical root — a quadratic or cubic model of a real quantity often has two or three roots, but negative times, negative lengths and values outside the modelled window must be rejected with a brief reason ('time cannot be negative'). Take the meaningful root only.
Forcing a power model onto humped data — is monotonic and passes through the origin (for ); it cannot rise then fall. Data with a peak or trough needs a quadratic or cubic, not a power model.
Reading a feature off the wrong place — get the vertex from the GDC's 'maximum'/'minimum' feature and the roots from 'zero'; do not read the largest data value as the maximum or the value of as the vertex.
Extrapolating without comment — predicting outside the data range is allowed, but you must flag it as extrapolation and question its reliability. Treating a far extrapolation as a firm prediction loses the reasoning mark.
Over-rounding the parameters — quoting , , to 3 s.f. and then computing with the rounded values corrupts later answers. Store the exact regression equation and evaluate from it; round only the final answer.
Writing the parameters but not the model — 'find the model' means write the full equation , not a bare list .
Dropping units and context — a height is ' m', a value is '£110 000'. A bare number left unlabelled, or a parameter never interpreted in context, throws away the interpretation marks these questions are designed to test.
Model answer — marked the way our engine marks it
On the calculator paper the marks are analytic: each is tied to a specific line of working — a method mark (M) or an accuracy mark (A) — and an accuracy mark depends on the method mark it follows. Follow-through (FT) means an earlier slip need not cost the marks that depend on it, provided the later step is done correctly on your own figures. The engine also accepts any correctly-rounded value and any equivalent form. But that protection only exists if the method is on the page — a GDC screen described in words earns the method mark, a bare number does not. Study how each mark below is earned.
The Practice button marks YOUR working exactly this way — analytically, mark by mark, with method marks, dependent accuracy marks and follow-through. So always show the method: store and graph the model, name the feature you used (maximum, minimum or zero), set up the equation you solved, and justify which root you keep. The method marks and follow-through are what protect your score when a number slips — and you only get that protection if the working is on the page.
Where this leads
Modelling with curves is the backbone of the applications course. The regression skill here reappears for exponential and trigonometric models, and the vertex, root and intercept features you read off a parabola are the same features you will locate on any function graph. The discipline of choosing a shape from the data, driving the GDC, rejecting non-physical solutions and interpreting parameters in context is exactly what every modelling question on the calculator paper rewards. Master 'choose the shape, fit it, read the feature, say what it means' and the rest of the modelling course becomes variations on a routine you already own.
Worked examples
See the formulas applied — reveal one step at a time, like the exam.
A small rocket is launched from a platform. Its height, metres, above the ground is recorded at times seconds after launch.
| Time, (s) | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Height, (m) | 35 | 50 | 55 | 50 | 35 |
(a) A quadratic model is used. Find , and . (b) Use the model to find the height after 2.5 seconds. (c) Determine the maximum height reached according to the model. [6]
- 1
This is a calculator question. Enter the times in one list and the heights in a second, then run quadratic regression.
The concentration of a drug in a patient's bloodstream, (mg/L), is measured hours after a dose.
| Time, (h) | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration, | 0 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 0.5 |
(a) A cubic model is proposed. Use your GDC to find the model. (b) Use the model to estimate the maximum concentration and when it occurs. (c) According to the model, at what time does the concentration first return to mg/L after the dose? [6]
- 1
Enter the times in one list and the concentrations in a second, then run cubic regression.
The value of a vintage car, in thousands of pounds, is recorded over years since 2000.
| Years, | 2 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Value, (£1000s) | 12.5 | 14.2 | 20.1 | 35.8 | 68.3 |
(a) A power model is proposed. Find and . (b) Estimate the car's value in 2018 (). (c) Comment on using this model to predict the value in 2050 (). [6]
- 1
The data rises ever more steeply from near the start, with no turning point — a power model is a sensible choice. Enter in one list and in a second, then run power regression.
The height of a ball is modelled by (height in metres, in seconds). Use your GDC to find the maximum height and the time when the ball hits the ground. [5]
- 1
Model answer — full working.
How it all connects
The big idea sits in the middle — tap a linked idea to explore the link.
Tap a linked idea to see how it connects back to the main topic — that connection is what examiners reward.
Glossary
Key terms for this topic — skim now; the Check step will test them.
- Its graph
Its graph is a parabola with exactly one turning point, the vertex. If the parabola opens upward (vertex is a minimum); if it opens downward (vertex is a maximum). The constant is the y-intercept.
- Axis of symmetry and vertex
The parabola is symmetric about the vertical line . The vertex sits on this line, so its x-coordinate is and its y-coordinate is found by substituting that back in — or read both straight off the GDC's max/min feature.
- Roots of a quadratic
The roots (or zeros) are the x-values where , i.e. where the parabola crosses the x-axis. A quadratic can have two, one (a repeated root, where the vertex touches the axis) or no real roots. Find them on the GDC with the 'zero' feature.
- Power model
The shape depends on the exponent . For the curve passes through the origin and rises; for it decays like a reciprocal curve and is undefined at . Unlike a polynomial it has a single term, so it usually has no separate y-intercept away from the origin.
- GDC regression
The GDC finds the best-fit parameters for a chosen model from a data list: QuadReg for , CubicReg for the cubic, PwrReg for . You are never asked to compute these by hand — the marks are for entering data correctly and interpreting the output.
- Coefficient of determination
A number between 0 and 1 that measures how well the model fits: the closer to 1, the better the fit. If a question does not fix the model, you may fit two and prefer the one with nearer 1. Note compares fit, it does not prove the model is correct beyond the data.
- y-intercept in context
The y-intercept is the value of the model when : for a quadratic it is , for a cubic it is . In context this is usually the initial or starting value — an object's launch height, a starting population, a fixed cost.
Name it
Read the meaning, then pick which of this lesson’s terms it describes. Miss one and you see what your choice really means.
A number between 0 and 1 that measures how well the model fits: the closer to 1, the better the fit. If a question does not fix the model, you may fit two and prefer the one with nearer 1. Note compares fit, it does not prove the model is correct beyond the data.
Quick check
Write your answer first, then compare it with the model one — the gap is what you would have lost.
Teach it back
If you can explain it simply, you own it — gaps here are marks you’d lose.
Teach it back
Explain this topic as if teaching a friend. We name the gaps an examiner would still dock.
Revision flashcards
Guess first, then flip — retrieval beats re-reading.
Key takeaways
Review these before you close the topic — retrieval beats re-reading.
Quadratic (): a parabola with exactly one turning point, the vertex. It opens upward when (vertex is a minimum) and downward when (vertex is a maximum). It is symmetric about the axis of symmetry , meets the y-axis at , and has up to two roots where it crosses the x-axis.
Cubic (): typically an 'S' shape with up to two turning points (a local maximum and a local minimum) and up to three roots. It meets the y-axis at . Good for growth that speeds up, levels off, then changes again.
Power (): a single-term curve whose shape is set by . For it rises from the origin with no turning point; for it decays like a reciprocal curve and is undefined at . It is monotonic — it cannot rise then fall — which is the key clue for when NOT to use it.
Practice — then mark it
The whole point: a real Cambridge question, marked mark-by-mark.
Get a Paper 2 modelling question marked: fit the model, find the vertex and roots, and predict with full working
Get a Paper 2 modelling question marked: fit the model, find the vertex and roots, and predict with full working
Extra simulations & links
PhET, GeoGebra and other curated tools — open in a new tab.
Frequently asked
Checkpoint
One marked question is worth ten re-reads — close the loop before you move on.
Reading it isn’t knowing it — prove it.
Before you move on: do Get a Paper 2 modelling question marked: fit the model, find the vertex and roots, and predict with full working on paper, snap a photo, and get examiner-style feedback on exactly where you win and lose marks.
Discuss Modelling with quadratic, cubic and power functions
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