This problem can be solved by comparing the Expected Monetary Value (EMV) of the two options: launching with research vs. launching without research.
Step 1: Calculate the EMV of launching WITHOUT research.
The potential outcomes are success (profit) or failure (loss of launch cost).
- Value of Success = +3,000,000
- Value of Failure = -2,000,000
- Probability of Success = 40% or 0.4
- Probability of Failure = 100% - 40% = 60% or 0.6
EMV = (Value of Success × P(Success)) + (Value of Failure × P(Failure))
EMV = (3,000,000×0.4)+(−2,000,000 × 0.6)
EMV = 1,200,000−1,200,000
**EMV without research = 0∗∗
Step 2: Calculate the EMV of launching WITH research.
First, account for the definite cost of the research. Then, calculate the EMV of the launch decision with the improved probabilities.
- Cost of Research = -50,000
- Value of Success = +3,000,000
- Value of Failure = -2,000,000
- New Probability of Success = 75% or 0.75
- New Probability of Failure = 100% - 75% = 25% or 0.25
EMV of launch decision = (3,000,000×0.75)+(−2,000,000 × 0.25)
EMV of launch decision = 2,250,000−500,000 = 1,750,000
Now, subtract the cost of the research to find the total EMV for this option:
Total EMV = 1,750,000−50,000
**Total EMV with research = 1,650,000∗∗
Step 3: Conclusion & Evaluation.
- EMV without research = 0
- EMV with research = 1,650,000
Comparing the two expected values, undertaking the market research leads to a much higher expected financial outcome (1,650,000vs0). The $50,000 investment in research is justified because it significantly reduces the risk of failure and increases the potential financial return by $1,650,000. Therefore, the firm should conduct the market research.