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9709 · 6.1

The Poisson distribution — common mistakes

Common exam mistakes on 9709 The Poisson distribution. Learn what loses marks, then practise the topic with Examiner’s Ink.

Exam tip 1

Always be vigilant about the interval specified in the question. If the rate is given per hour and the question asks about a 5-minute interval, you MUST adjust λ\lambda accordingly. A common mistake is to use the given rate without scaling it to the correct interval.

What is the main difference between the Binomial and Poisson distributions?

The Binomial distribution counts the number of 'successes' in a fixed number of trials, nn. For example, the number of heads in 10 coin flips. The Poisson distribution counts the number of events in a fixed interval of time or space, where there is no theoretical upper limit to the number of events that can occur.

My calculator only has a Poisson CD (cumulative) function. How can I find P(X=r)?

You can find an exact probability by subtracting two cumulative probabilities: P(X=r)=P(Xr)P(Xr1)P(X=r) = P(X \le r) - P(X \le r-1). For example, P(X=3)=P(X3)P(X2)P(X=3) = P(X \le 3) - P(X \le 2).

How large does n have to be for the Poisson approximation to the Binomial to be valid?

There isn't a single definitive number, but a common rule of thumb used in A-Level Mathematics is n>50n > 50 and p<0.1p < 0.1. The quality of the approximation improves as nn gets larger and pp gets smaller. It's also generally best when the mean, λ=np\lambda = np, is not too large (e.g., λ<15\lambda < 15).

Can lambda (λ) be a decimal?

Yes, absolutely. λ\lambda represents the average number of events in an interval, and averages can certainly be non-integers. For example, if a call centre receives 5 calls every 2 hours on average, the rate is λ=2.5\lambda = 2.5 calls per hour.