Worked example 1
The lifetime risk of schizophrenia in the general population is approximately 1%. Gottesman's (1991) research found a concordance rate of 48% for monozygotic (MZ) twins. Calculate how many times more likely an individual is to develop schizophrenia if their identical twin has the disorder, compared to someone in the general population. Show your working and explain the implication.
Show solution outline
Step 1: Identify the relevant probabilities.
- Risk for an individual with an affected MZ twin (P_MZ) = 48% or 0.48
- Risk for the general population (P_GenPop) = 1% or 0.01
Step 2: Formulate the calculation for relative risk.
- Relative Risk = Probability in exposed group / Probability in unexposed group
- Relative Risk = P_MZ / P_GenPop
Step 3: Perform the calculation.
- Relative Risk = 0.48 / 0.01
- Relative Risk = 48
Step 4: State the answer and implication.
- Answer: An individual is 48 times more likely to develop schizophrenia if their identical twin has the disorder compared to the general population.
- Implication: This large increase in relative risk provides strong quantitative evidence for a significant genetic component in the aetiology of schizophrenia, as MZ twins share 100% of their genes.