Population — practice questions

Step 1 — Natural increase (a): birth rate − death rate = 20 − 8 = 12 per 1 000, or 1.2% a year. Adding net migration of 2 per 1 000 gives a total growth rate of 14 per 1 000 = 1.4% a year.

Step 2 — Population after one year (b): growth = 1.4% × 50 million = 700 000. Population = 50.7 million.

Step 3 — Doubling time (c): using the rule of 70, doubling time ≈ 70 ÷ 1.4 = 50 years.

Step 4 — A problem of rapid growth (c): schools, hospitals, housing and water supply must expand by 1.4% a year just to keep standards constant; if investment lags, class sizes rise and services deteriorate. If output grows more slowly than the population, GDP per head falls and living standards drop even though the economy is growing.

Step 1 — Dependency ratio today (a): dependants = 12 + 8 = 20 million; working age = 30 million. Ratio = 20 ÷ 30 = 0.67 — about 67 dependants per 100 workers.

Step 2 — Forecast ratio (b): dependants = 10 + 15 = 25 million; working age = 30 million. Ratio = 25 ÷ 30 = 0.83 — about 83 dependants per 100 workers. The rise comes entirely from the over-64 group: the population is ageing.

Step 3 — Effects (c): first, government spending on pensions and healthcare rises while the number of taxpayers is unchanged, so either taxes rise or other spending falls. Second, the labour force stops growing while the elderly population nearly doubles, so output per head may fall and firms face labour shortages; demand shifts towards healthcare and away from goods bought by families with children.

Step 4 — Policy response (c): raising the retirement age moves people from the dependent to the working group, lowering the ratio directly; alternatives are encouraging immigration of working-age people, raising the birth rate with child benefits, or encouraging private pension saving. Each has costs — older workers may resent working longer, immigration can be politically difficult, and child benefits take decades to affect the workforce.